The Way The Strange Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still