A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
